The labor market may face changes with President-elect Donald Trump set to begin his second term later this month. Over the past two years, the health care industry has shown significant growth, largely due to Covid-related spending. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report released on Friday, the health care and social assistance sectors added 902,000 jobs in 2024, nearly matching the 966,000 jobs created in 2023.
In contrast, the government sector saw a decrease in job creation, adding 440,000 jobs in 2024 compared to 709,000 in 2023. Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, attributed part of the growth in health care jobs to the increasing population and a growing number of retirees. She mentioned in an interview with CNBC that the demand for health care workers, which includes immigrants accounting for about 18% of the workforce, could be impacted by potential mass deportations and changes in foreign labor visa policies under a second Trump administration.
Gould also highlighted the growth in the government sector, particularly at the state level, but expressed concerns about potential reductions in the workforce under Trump’s proposed Department of Government Efficiency. She emphasized the importance of maintaining a productive federal workforce to ensure the delivery of essential services and support the economy.
On the other hand, a Trump administration might benefit sectors like manufacturing, mining, and logging, which experienced slower job creation in 2024. Trump’s proposed tariffs could potentially stimulate growth in these industries, although the extent of this impact remains uncertain. Looking ahead, Gould emphasized the significance of examining the distribution of corporate sector income between workers and profits to support economic growth and address concerns about inflation.
She stressed the importance of increasing wages to boost consumer spending, which in turn drives production and service provision without causing inflationary pressures. Gould suggested that there is room for wages to rise further without negatively affecting inflation, despite recent productivity growth and inflation trends.
