The economic challenges stemming from inflation appear to have hastened a shift of Latino voters towards Republicans, significantly reducing the Democratic lead within this crucial voting group leading up to a closely contested presidential election, as per an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.
The survey, which involved 1,000 Latino registered voters, revealed that the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, is ahead of the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. This margin is notably smaller than the 36-point lead President Joe Biden held before the 2020 election. Biden’s lead was nearly half of the 50-point advantage Hillary Clinton had over Trump in 2016, indicating a trend of diminishing Latino support for Democrats over time.
Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic pollsters for the survey, noted, “There’s an intensity around these issues that is quite striking. The cost of living and inflation is really what is informing a lot of the way that people are thinking about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept. 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris’s 14-point lead represents the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among surveyed Latino voters in at least the past four elections, dating back to 2012. The survey also indicated a 54% to 42% preference for Democratic control of Congress among Latinos, the smallest Democratic lead since 2012, suggesting a shift that could extend beyond the presidential race.
Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies and the Republican pollster for the survey, stated, “The data in this poll is not a flash in the pan. It’s a continuation of a precipitous and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important voter groups in America.”
Harris maintains strong leads among respondents on character-related issues, with surveyed Latino voters believing she would better address their needs by a two-to-one margin. Harris also received a positive favorability rating from 48% of respondents compared to 32% for Trump. Additionally, she led Trump by around 20 points or more on questions regarding temperament, trustworthiness, competence, and effectiveness.
However, the survey highlighted inflation, the cost of living, jobs, and the economy as the top concerns for Latinos, aligning with broader population surveys. Trump leads Harris on these issues, with a 46% to 37% advantage on handling inflation and a 45% to 41% edge on managing the economy.
Harris holds a 39-point lead on treating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights, a 32-point lead on the abortion issue, and even a 5-point edge on crime. These results underscore the significance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump’s increased support among Latinos in this survey compared to 2020.
Harris’s lead over Trump notably decreased among younger voters aged 18-34, who now favor the Democratic candidate by only 10 points compared to 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied among Latino men at 47%, a group that Biden led by 17 points in the lead-up to the 2020 election. The Democratic advantage among Latino women stands at 26 points, about half of Biden’s lead in 2020.
Latino voters, across all groups, express negative views on the economy, with only 23% considering the current state of the economy as excellent or good. This sentiment aligns with the broader population, with 77% of Latino voters rating the economy as fair or poor, similar to the results from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey in August. This economic outlook poses a potential challenge for Democrats, as Latinos have traditionally been reliable Democratic voters but do not align with Democrats on economic issues.
In the CNBC survey, Democrats rated the economy as 42% excellent or good, contrasting with the 23% rating among Latinos in this poll. 65% of Latinos believe their wages are falling behind inflation, a figure 11 points higher than in the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Younger Latino women and adults report being disproportionately affected by rising prices.
Among those feeling economically strained, 48% cite the cost of groceries as the most impactful, 34% mention rent and mortgage costs, and 10% highlight healthcare expenses.
While Latino opinions on immigration vary widely, it ranks as the fourth most important concern, trailing behind inflation, jobs, and threats to democracy. The survey indicates that 62% of respondents believe immigration benefits the country more than it harms, with 35% holding the opposite view. This represents the lowest positive sentiment towards immigration among Latinos since at least 2006.
On the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration, Trump leads Harris 47-34, according to the survey.
A slight majority of Latino voters, at 52%, prioritize providing a pathway to citizenship for immigrants and preventing discrimination, compared to 47% who prioritize securing the border and preventing illegal immigration.
Nevertheless, 91% support establishing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented spouses, and 87% back a citizenship pathway for undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children.
The NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey provides a demographic profile of Latino voters, offering insights into their views and preferences.
