In this article, Eli Lilly reduced its revenue guidance on Tuesday, citing that the demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs would not meet its high expectations. As a result, the drugmaker’s shares closed more than 6% lower on Tuesday. Eli Lilly now anticipates full-year 2024 revenue to be around $45 billion, which is lower than the $45.4 billion to $46 billion range forecasted in October. Despite this adjustment, the new outlook would still represent a 32% increase in revenue from the previous year.
Eli Lilly has been working diligently to meet the increasing demand for its diabetes treatment Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound. The company has invested significantly in expanding its manufacturing capacity for its popular incretin drugs. These efforts have been fruitful, with the Food and Drug Administration confirming in December that the U.S. shortage of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both drugs, has been resolved.
During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks expressed confidence in the company’s supply chain, stating that they have a substantial amount of supply coming online and expect continued growth. Ricks also mentioned plans to increase manufacturing capacity, aiming to produce at least 60% more sellable doses of its incretin drugs in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2024.
For the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly is projecting revenue of $13.5 billion, with approximately $3.5 billion attributed to Mounjaro and $1.9 billion to Zepbound. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had anticipated fourth-quarter and full-year revenue of $13.94 billion and $45.49 billion, respectively.
The revised outlook from Eli Lilly comes as the company faces competition from Novo Nordisk and other competitors in the weight loss and diabetes drug market. Eli Lilly is working on developing an obesity pill that is expected to be more convenient for patients and easier to manufacture, with Ricks anticipating approval as early as next year.
Ricks explained that the U.S. incretin market grew by 45% compared to the same quarter last year, but the company’s previous guidance had projected even faster growth for the quarter. This, along with lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, impacted the Q4 results, according to Ricks.
Eli Lilly also announced its sales expectations of $58 billion to $61 billion for fiscal 2025. The company is scheduled to release its full quarterly results on Feb. 6.
