Egg prices are on the rise, bringing the household staple into focus as consumers worry not only about inflation but also the actual price levels.
In July, egg prices increased for the third consecutive month compared to the previous year, a shift from a year of declines. The spike was attributed to the ongoing battle against highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as HPAI or bird flu.
According to consumer price index (CPI) data released this week, egg prices surged by 19.1% in July compared to the same month a year earlier. In contrast, the entire CPI basket of goods rose by only 2.9% during the same period.
During the pandemic, inflation in egg prices became a concern for consumers due to their widespread use in daily cooking. Rising egg and grocery prices have been a major issue for consumers dealing with increased costs, impacting consumer sentiment in recent times.
The recent inflationary trend seems to be linked to a nearly 8% spike from March to April, which can be attributed to seasonal patterns related to the bird flu. This was the largest month-over-month increase since the spring of 2023.
Caitlinn Hubbell, a market research analyst at Purdue University’s Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability in West Lafayette, Indiana, stated, “The short answer, we think, is related to avian influenza. As unfortunate as that is, the high-path avian influenza has continued to be around.”
The bird flu experienced a significant outbreak in 2022 and resurged at the end of 2023. Recent resurgences in Colorado and California have further impacted supplies, according to Hubbell.
Hubbell explained that egg demand is considered “inelastic,” meaning consumers typically buy the same amount regardless of price increases. Conversely, consumers usually do not stock up when prices drop.
Items with inelastic demand tend to experience significant price fluctuations with even minor changes in supply, highlighting the impact of bird flu outbreaks on grocery prices.
As a result, consumers have faced higher egg prices. In July, the average price for a dozen large, Grade A eggs exceeded $3 for the first time in over a year, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite the recent price increase, egg prices are still more than 20% lower than the levels seen the previous year. Nevertheless, the price of eggs within the CPI basket has risen by approximately 42% compared to July 2021.
Looking ahead, Hubbell mentioned that price movements will depend on the status of the bird flu. She expressed hope that consumers may find some relief as upcoming seasons are less likely to bring outbreaks.
“It’s hard to tell,” Hubbell said. “It all depends on the impact and scope of HPAI.”
