Hurricane Milton’s potential for once-in-a-century devastation could result in damages exceeding $50 billion, with the possibility of leaving behind destruction nearing $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, as indicated by prominent Wall Street analysts. This would compound the havoc already caused by Hurricane Helene, setting the stage for a potentially record-breaking trail of destruction.
Although it is premature to provide estimates on insured losses, analysts such as Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others have highlighted the significant financial impact a major hurricane could have on Florida’s densely populated areas. They mentioned that a major hurricane striking one of Florida’s most heavily populated regions could lead to losses in the mid-double-digit billions. Some estimates suggest that a 1-in-100 year event could result in losses of $175 billion for a landfall in the Tampa region and $70 billion for the Fort Myers region.
The exact magnitude of the potential damage remains uncertain and will hinge on factors such as timing and location, with a landfall closer to Fort Myers expected to incur lower costs. Looking back at Hurricane Ian’s impact two years ago near Fort Myers as a Category 4 storm, which resulted in over $50 billion in losses, serves as a historical reference point. Ian was considered a 1-in-20-year event.
If Hurricane Milton’s trajectory through the more developed Tampa region materializes, the potential losses could be even greater, according to Kinar. While currently classified as a Category 4 hurricane, Milton may weaken by the time it makes landfall.
Wells Fargo observed that the market appears to be anticipating losses exceeding $50 billion (greater than Ian) at this juncture. The firm outlined a broad range for potential damages, spanning from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region has already been severely impacted by Hurricane Helene, which struck the area 12 days ago, resulting in estimated devastation of around $11 billion by Moody’s. Moody’s also anticipates that the National Flood Insurance Program could face losses nearing $2 billion in addition to property damage.
Moody’s analysts have yet to assess the potential damage from Hurricane Milton. The firm emphasized that Hurricane Helene has been the most significant event of the current 2024 hurricane season so far, but this could swiftly change with the impending impact of Major Hurricane Milton on Florida.
Moody’s highlighted that many residents in the worst-affected areas hit by Helene lack flood insurance, indicating that a substantial portion of the damage will likely be uninsured, with economic property losses outweighing insured losses. Milton slightly weakened on Tuesday but maintained wind speeds of 145 mph. It is forecasted to reach Tampa on Wednesday morning, bringing storm surges of 10 to 15 feet to Tampa Bay.
While the anticipated danger and damage to the region are substantial, the storm is not expected to pose the same level of threat to neighboring states as Helene did.
